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FITCH RATINGS SAYS THE U.S. EFFECTIVE TARIFF RATE HAS FALLEN TO 7.4% ON THE LATEST TARIFFS AND CHANGING TRADE FLOWS ›

Fitch suggests tariff headwinds are easing via lower effective rates and shifting trade flows, which should modestly reduce inflation pressure and support risk assets; effects are likely secondary versus real yields/oil in the current tape.

ISRAELI PM NETANYAHU EXPRESSED SKEPTICISM DURING HIS MEETING WITH TRUMP OVER THE CHANCES OF REACHING AN AGREEMENT WITH IRAN, AND THE TWO DISCUSSED INCREASING ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON IRAN 'THROUGH KINETIC AND NON-KINETIC MEANS' - SENIOR ISRAELI OFFICIAL VIA AXIOS CORRESPONDENT BARAK ›

Israel-Iran tensions: Netanyahu skepticism and talk of escalating pressure increase geopolitical risk and raise the odds of a disruptive supply/energy shock; this can lift oil and keep inflation/yields elevated, pressuring risk assets.

SENIOR ISRAELI OFFICIAL: KHAMENEI 'IS ALIVE, BUT NO ONE CAN TESTIFY THEY'VE SEEN HIM,' TOLD MEN NOT TO ACT WITHOUT HIS APPROVAL, REPORTEDLY GREW ANGRY WHEN THEY ONCE ACTED WITHOUT HIM - AXIOS CORRESPONDENT BARAK RAVID ›

Uncertainty around Iranian supreme leadership increases Middle East geopolitical risk, which can pressure oil prices and raise risk premia, but does not directly indicate an immediate broad policy or market shock.

SENIOR ISRAELI OFFICIAL: IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER MOJTABA KHAMENEI TAKING 'VERY NEGATIVE' LINE ON EVERY ISSUE, BUT UNCLEAR IF INSTRUCTIONS ATTRIBUTED TO HIM ACTUALLY COME FROM HIM - AXIOS CORRESPONDENT BARAK RAVID ›

Uncertainty around Iran’s stance heightens Middle East geopolitical risk, which can pressure oil prices and lift inflation/yields via energy risk premium.

ZELENSKY: TRUMP MEETING LIKELY TO YIELD KUSHNER, WITKOFF VISIT TO KYIV WITHIN TWO WEEKS, THEIR FIRST TRIP TO UKRAINE AFTER MULTIPLE VISITS TO RUSSIA - AXIOS CORRESPONDENT BARAK RAVIDZELENSKY: TRUMP MEETING LIKELY TO YIELD KUSHNER, WITKOFF VISIT TO KYIV WITHIN TWO WEEKS, THEIR ›

Peace/aid diplomacy developments around Ukraine are marginal for markets, but ongoing geopolitical uncertainty can keep a bid for energy risk hedges; most effect is indirect via risk sentiment and potential oil volatility.

ARM SEES Q2 REVENUE $1.33B-$1.43B (MIDPOINT $1.38B ±$50M) VS EST $1.35B, ADJUSTED EPS 43C-51C VS EST 45C, ADJUSTED OPEX ~$780M BELOW EST $793M ›

ARM’s Q2 revenue slightly below consensus and EPS modestly weaker, but OPEX comes in below estimates—incremental read-through for semi/AI chip demand and margins.

ARM HOLDINGS: ADJUSTED OPERATING INCOME $531M BEATS EST $477.3M, ADJUSTED GROSS MARGIN 98.1% IN LINE; ROYALTY REVENUE $715M AND LICENSE REVENUE $574M BOTH TOP ESTS; ANNUALISED CONTRACT VALUE $1.73B ABOVE EST $1.67B ›

ARM’s results beat across operating income and both royalty/licensing lines, supporting sentiment for AI semis and IP licensing demand; likely modest lift for growth/tech while broader markets remain yield-sensitive.

ARM HOLDINGS Q1 REVENUE $1.29B BEATS EST $1.26B, ADJUSTED EPS 45C TOPS EST 40C; EPS 25C, ADJUSTED NET INCOME $480M BEATS EST $433.6M ›

ARM Q1 results beat on revenue and adjusted EPS, signaling resilient semiconductor/AI demand; supports semis and high-quality growth sentiment amid range-bound equities.

STARBUCKS SEES Q4 US COMPARABLE SALES UP AT LEAST 6.5% VS EST +4.81%, FY GLOBAL COMPARABLE SALES GROWTH NEARING 6.0%; RAISES FY2026 GUIDANCE ›

Stronger-than-expected Starbucks comps and raised FY guidance signal resilient consumer demand and pricing power, supporting US consumer/retail sentiment; likely reduces near-term inflation and margin fears.

STARBUCKS: US COMPARABLE SALES +7.9% VS EST +5.72%, INTERNATIONAL +5.7% VS EST +4.14%; ADJUSTED OPERATING MARGIN 14.4% TOPS EST 11.9% ›

Stronger-than-expected Starbucks comps and a large beat in adjusted operating margin point to resilient consumer demand and pricing power; modestly supportive for discretionary/consumer staples while valuations remain a headwind.

STARBUCKS Q3 ADJUSTED EPS $0.85 CRUSHES EST $0.65, REVENUE $9.30B BEATS EST $9.16B; COMPARABLE SALES +7.9% VS EST +5.73% ›

Strong Starbucks earnings beat with faster-than-expected comp sales (+7.9% vs +5.73%); supports consumer/retail pricing-power narrative while limiting near-term inflation risk concerns.

RT @RedboxWire: NASDAQ UNOFFICIALLY ENDS 444.41 POINTS, OR 1.79%, LOWER AT 24,432.51 S&P 500 UNOFFICIALLY ENDS 114.79 POINTS, OR 1.55%, LO… ›

Broad US equity decline suggests risk-off/valuation sensitivity in a range-bound, high-CAPE environment; slight drag likely tied to rate/real-yield and earnings expectations rather than a single-sector shock.

MICROSOFT BOOKS $3.2B GAIN FROM ANTHROPIC INVESTMENT; 365 CONSUMER CLOUD REVENUE UP 24%, 365 COPILOT SURPASSES 30 MLN PAID SEATS ›

Stronger-than-expected Microsoft AI monetization (Anthropic investment gains, 365 consumer cloud growth, Copilot paid seat scaling) supports premium cloud/AI demand and may lift broader mega-cap tech sentiment.

MICROSOFT CLOUD REVENUE $59.3B AND INTELLIGENT CLOUD REVENUE $39.31B BOTH BEAT ESTS; AZURE GROWTH EX-FX +43% CRUSHES EST +39.6%, AZURE REVENUE SURPASSES $100B; CAPEX $35.80B ABOVE EST, CAPEX INCLUDING LEASES $41B SLIGHTLY BELOW EST $42.05B ›

Strong MSFT earnings with outsized Azure ex-FX growth and revenue milestone; supports AI/cloud capex cycle and growth sentiment, likely lifting megacap software/semis at the margin while keeping attention on elevated capex and yields.

MICROSOFT Q4 EPS $4.81, ADJUSTED EPS $4.74 BEATS EST $4.25; REVENUE $90.01B TOPS EST $87.72B, OPERATING INCOME $40.60B ABOVE EST $39.02B ›

Microsoft reports Q4 results that beat on EPS, revenue, and operating income, reinforcing AI/software demand and pricing power; supportive for mega-cap tech and broader risk sentiment, though market remains sensitive to high valuations and real-yield moves.

META RAISES FY EXPENSE VIEW TO $165B-$169B AND CAPEX VIEW TO $130B-$145B, LIFTING LOWER END OF BOTH RANGES; Q2 INCLUDED $1.18B IN SEVERANCE FROM MAY JOB CUTS, OUTLOOK INCLUDES $2.4B IN LEGAL CHARGES; DAILY ACTIVE PEOPLE AVERAGED 3.60B IN JUNE ›

Meta raises FY expense and capex guidance (lower end lifted) and flags $2.4B in legal charges plus $1.18B severance; shows continued investment despite one-offs, supporting AI/data-center spend while adding cost uncertainty.

META Q2 OPERATING INCOME $18.78B DOWN 8.2% Y/Y; AD REVENUE $59.36B AND FAMILY OF APPS REVENUE $60.37B BOTH TOP ESTS, BUT FAMILY OF APPS OPERATING INCOME $23.39B MISSES EST $26.11B; REALITY LABS REVENUE $431M BEATS, LOSS WIDENS TO $4.62B VS EST LOSS $4.45B ›

Meta Q2 shows mixed fundamentals: ad and Family of Apps revenue beat, but Family of Apps operating income misses on cost pressure; Reality Labs revenue beat with wider losses, increasing uncertainty around profitability trajectory for long-cycle AI/VR investments. This is likely modestly bearish for large-cap tech margins and sentiment, while not derailing the ad-led top-line narrative.

ZELENSKY SAYS UKRAINE NEEDS AT LEAST 300 PATRIOT INTERCEPTORS FOR THE WINTER; TRUMP PLEDGES SUPPORT BUT CITES SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS AMID IRAN CONFLICT. - AXIOS CORRESPONDENT BARAK RAVID ›

Escalating Iran–Ukraine missile-interceptor demand highlights supply tightness and sustains geopolitical risk, with potential upward pressure on defense stocks and risk premium in rates/oil.

GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS IT NO LONGER EXPECTS ERCOT TO BECOME CRITICALLY TIGHT BY 2030 ›

Slightly lowers medium-term power-market tightness risk for Texas utilities; modestly reduces tail risk to electricity prices and related cost pressures.

GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS IT CONTINUES TO SEE STRUCTURAL TIGHTENING IN PJM, ONLY MODESTLY OFFSET BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANS, REINFORCING ITS VIEW OF CRITICAL TIGHTNESS IN PJM THROUGH 2030 ›

Grid/power-market tightness in PJM over multiple years raises risk of higher electricity prices and reliability-driven costs; likely limited near-term equity upside, with modest defensive implications for utilities and power infrastructure.

SAUDI DEFENSE MINISTER MET VICE PRESIDENT VANCE AT THE WHITE HOUSE WEDNESDAY AND STRESSED THAT, DESPITE THE JOINT US-SAUDI STRIKE ON MILITIAS IN IRAQ, THE KINGDOM STILL SUPPORTS DE-ESCALATION WITH IRAN - AXIOS, CITING A SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER ›

Saudi signals support for de-escalation with Iran, which may temper Middle East escalation risk but keeps defense/middle east headline volatility in focus for oil and risk premiums.

TRUMP SAYS THE PATRIOT MISSILE SYSTEM DEFENDED A US BASE LAST NIGHT AND PRAISES THE SYSTEM, ADDS HE'D LIKE ZELENSKIY TO END THE WAR, AND SAYS THE US WILL RESPOND TO THE ATTACK ON THE JORDAN BASE, ADDING "WE'RE GOING TO SMACK IRAN A LITTLE BIT" ›

US-Iran escalation rhetoric raises Middle East risk premium, lifting oil/defense sentiment while adding geopolitical uncertainty; FX and yields may react via risk-off and energy inflation expectations.

CANADA-US TRADE MINISTER LEBLANC SAYS HE HELD A COMPREHENSIVE MEETING WITH USTR GREER AND THE TWO AGREED TO STAY IN CLOSE CONTACT ›

Canada–US trade talks appear cooperative, reducing near-term tariff/trade-war uncertainty; effect likely limited unless policy details change.

TECH STOCKS STAYED UNDER PRESSURE, WITH NVIDIA AND KLA CORP FALLING AND SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPI TUMBLING 6% AFTER SK HYNIX SHARES DROPPED DESPITE RECORD QUARTERLY REVENUE, WHILE HIMS & HERS HEALTH SANK 11.4% AFTER REGULATORS ALLEGED IT SHARED SENSITIVE HEALTH DATA WITH ADVERTISERS ›

Risk-off in tech/semis despite strong fundamentals (SK Hynix record revenue) plus regulatory blow to digital health raises uncertainty; likely pressures growth-sensitive equities and supports USD as investors de-risk.

US STOCKS SWUNG BETWEEN LOSSES AND GAINS AFTER THE FED HELD RATES STEADY, WITH THE S&P 500 SLIPPING 0.1% AND THE DOW DOWN 1.3%, AS FED CHAIR WARSH SUGGESTED THE BOND MARKET MAY ALREADY BE HELPING RESTRAIN INFLATION GIVEN RISING YIELDS SINCE THE LAST MEETING ›

Fed held rates steady; chair signaled higher yields may already be restraining inflation, keeping real-yield sensitivity in focus and reinforcing a cautious, range-bound tape (mixed S&P/Dow reaction).

BRENT CRUDE LEAPED 7.3% TO SETTLE AT $88.09 A BARREL AS FIGHTING RESUMED IN THE IRAN WAR, WITH IRAN LAUNCHING MISSILES AT AMERICAN FORCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST WHILE THE US MILITARY JOINED SAUDI ARABIA IN STRIKING TEHRAN-BACKED MILITIAS IN IRAQ ›

Geopolitical escalation driving a sharp Brent spike, raising near-term oil/inflation and real-yield risk; typically pressures risk assets while boosting energy and parts of defense.

ZELENSKIY SAYS A MASSIVE RUSSIAN ATTACK ON UKRAINE IS LIKELY THIS EVENING, AND THAT DEFENDING UKRAINE'S PEOPLE DEPENDS ON THE WILLINGNESS OF PARTNERS, ESPECIALLY THE US, TO PROVIDE MISSILE DEFENSE ›

Escalating Russia-Ukraine attack risk increases geopolitical tail risk and boosts demand for missile defense/defense spending; near-term could pressure risk assets and support USD and safe havens while potentially raising energy volatility.

TRUMP SAYS HE HAS BEEN BRIEFED ON THE EGYPT INCIDENT, WILL HIT IRAN HARD, AND THAT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A DEAL CAN BE REACHED ›

Rising Middle East escalation risk (Egypt/Iran) increases oil-shock and risk-premium potential, pressuring energy-sensitive assets and lifting inflation/yield concerns.

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH'S PRESS CONFERENCE: WARSH SAID TREASURY YIELDS, THE DOLLAR, AND OTHER MARKET SIGNALS SUGGEST THE FED STILL HAS CREDIBILITY. THE FED WILL HOLD REGULAR PRESS CONFERENCES THROUGH YEAR-END TO IMPROVE TRANSPARENCY. WARSH SAID THE FED IS ›

Fed Chair Warsh signaled confidence from market-implied conditions (yields/dollar), with an emphasis on transparency via regular press conferences; mildly supportive for risk assets as it reduces uncertainty, though policy remains restrictive and high-for-longer.

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH'S PRESS CONFERENCE: FORWARD GUIDANCE SHOULD BE RESERVED FOR CRISIS PERIODS, NOT NORMAL CONDITIONS. AI-RELATED CAPITAL SPENDING IS SURGING AND IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FUTURE PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. HOWEVER, THE AI INVESTMENT ›

Fed communications shift toward limited forward guidance while acknowledging surging AI capex; near-term supports growth expectations but doesn’t signal easing—rates/real yields remain the key market transmission.

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH'S PRESS CONFERENCE: FED KEPT RATES UNCHANGED AT 3.50%-3.75%, BUT MAINTAINED A HAWKISH TONE. FED REMAINS FULLY COMMITTED TO RETURNING INFLATION TO THE 2% TARGET. WARSH SAID THERE IS "NO SOFT INFLATION TARGET" AND THE FED WILL NOT WAVER. ›

Hawkish Fed communication (rates unchanged but anti-"soft inflation" stance) reinforces higher-for-longer expectations, raising real-yield and USD sensitivity and pressuring rate-sensitive growth/equities while supporting financial/defensive positioning.

TRUMP PRAISES NVIDIA CEO HUANG AND THE COMPANY'S CHIPS DURING HUANG'S VISIT TO THE OVAL OFFICE ›

Positive headline for AI semiconductors; supportive political optics for Nvidia and the broader AI supply chain. Likely benefits high-duration tech sentiment more than near-term rates/FX.

WARSH SAYS HE IS COMMITTING TO HOLDING PRESS CONFERENCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS YEAR ›

Headline is about political scheduling (press conferences) with no direct macro or policy signal; likely minimal immediate market effect.

WARSH SAYS THE FED WILL NOT BE CONSTRAINED BY MARKET PRICES - MARKETS CAN BE A GOOD SOURCE OF INFORMATION BUT NOT A DETERMINATIVE ONE, AND HE'S TRYING TO KEEP THAT INFORMATION AS DIRECT AND UNFILTERED AS POSSIBLE ›

Fed messaging pushes back against market-implied rates; modest risk to rate-sensitive equities if it reinforces a higher-for-longer stance. Sentiment slightly bearish as real-yield expectations may firm.

WARSH SAYS THE FED IS FOCUSED "LIKE A LASER" ON DELIVERING, NOTING MARKET PRICES BROADLY ARE NOT SAYING "ALL CLEAR" BUT HAVE TIGHTENED FINANCIAL CONDITIONS, WHICH IS KEEPING THE FED "ON ITS TOES" ›

Fed officials emphasize precision on policy delivery while market pricing hasn’t fully normalized; reiteration of restrictive stance keeps pressure on rate-sensitive valuations and supports tighter financial conditions.

WARSH SAYS HE HEARS FROM HOUSEHOLDS AND BUSINESSES TELLING THE FED TO "DELIVER IT ALREADY" ›

Fed pressure rhetoric from Washington points to potential hawkish political noise, keeping markets sensitive to rates/real yields; sentiment slightly negative for rate-sensitive risk assets.

WARSH SAYS HE HAS KNOWN ALMOST ALL COMMITTEE MEMBERS FOR A VERY LONG TIME, AND THAT THE FED IS ACCOUNTABLE TO ITS OVERSIGHT COMMITTEES AND THE REMIT FROM CONGRESS ›

Commentary on Fed oversight/accountability; no clear signal on policy path or yields.

WARSH SAYS THE FOMC IS THE DECISION MAKER, AND HE WANTED A DIVERGENCE OF VIEWS WITHIN THE COMMITTEE TO SEE WHETHER NEW IDEAS COULD SPARK A BETTER DISCUSSION IN THE ROOM ›

Rhetoric reinforces Fed control of policy; “divergence of views” suggests deliberation but no clear shift from restrictive, higher-for-longer stance—typically mild risk to rates-sensitive growth.

WARSH SAYS THE TREASURY CURVE AND THE DOLLAR ARE BROADLY SIGNALING THAT THE FOMC OWNS THE SITUATION AND HAS THE CREDIBILITY TO DELIVER ›

Treasury curve/dollar implying confidence in the Fed’s credibility; modest tailwind for risk sentiment via stable rates and USD.

WARSH SAYS THE COMMITTEE SPENT AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF TIME EXAMINING ITS MONETARY POLICY, TOOLS, AND AVAILABLE DATA, AND THAT TODAY'S DECISION WAS THE FARTHEST THING FROM INERTIA HE CAN IMAGINE ›

Fed-style commentary keeps attention on policy path; slight bearish tilt via implied policy deliberation/possible responsiveness, reinforcing higher-for-longer uncertainty.

WARSH SAYS THAT TO ACHIEVE 2% INFLATION HE IS LOOKING AT A BROADER SET OF INFLATION DATA THAN JUST PCE, THOUGH THE FORMAL INFLATION REMIT ITSELF IS NARROWLY DEFINED BY PCE - IT'S NOT A PERFECT SCIENCE, BUT THE FED HAS DATA PROJECTS TO SEPARATE NOISE FROM SIGNAL ›

Broader inflation-data review reiterates focus on sticky inflation vs noise; modest risk of higher-for-longer if services/inflation breadth remains elevated, supporting yields and pressuring rate-sensitive equities.

WARSH SAYS ANY CENTRAL BANKER SEEING STABLE EMPLOYMENT ALONGSIDE RISING UNDERLYING INFLATION WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO TIGHTEN POLICY ›

Signals hawkish policy reaction to sticky underlying inflation even with stable jobs, reinforcing higher-for-longer/rates volatility risk and pressuring duration-sensitive equities.

WARSH SAYS OFFERING FORWARD GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE IN CRISIS MODE, BUT NOT IN BENIGN MOMENTS ›

Language from Fed Chair Warsh about crisis-mode forward guidance implies a shift away from routine guidance, keeping policy uncertainty around restrictive settings; likely minor near-term effect on rates-sensitive assets.

WARSH SAYS SURPRISE IS NOT THE OBJECTIVE FUNCTION - EVERYTHING SHOULD SERVE THE GOAL OF MAKING THE BEST DECISION, AND THE FED DID NOT ENTER THIS MEETING CONSTRAINED ›

Slightly cautious tone on Fed decision-making framing; no clear new policy constraint, but reinforces watchfulness around rates.

WARSH SAYS HE WILL LET THE DISSENTERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES ›

Headline appears procedural/political without clear direct linkage to rates, oil, or major macro data—limited immediate market signal.

WARSH SAYS THE FED HAS A REASONABLE SENSE OF AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND, THOUGH THE SURGE IN AI-RELATED CAPEX MAKES THAT JUDGMENT HARDER FOR NOW ›

Cautiously supportive for risk assets as Fed commentary suggests supply-demand is manageable, but uncertainty around AI capex keeps rate/real-yield sensitivity elevated.

WARSH SAYS HE DOESN'T BELIEVE THE MANDATE IS AN "EITHER OR" PROPOSITION, ADDING THERE ARE NO ORPHANS WHEN IT COMES TO THE DUAL MANDATE, AND THAT THE FED IS DOING WELL FOR NOW ON THE EMPLOYMENT SIDE ›

Fed commentary suggests employment concerns are not escalating; likely limits immediate downside risk from labor-market policy fears, keeping sentiment neutral.

BRENT CRUDE FUTURES SETTLE UP $6.65, OR 7.91%, AT $90.74 PER BARREL ›

Large Brent jump (+7.9%) implies higher energy costs and renewed inflation/oil-shock risk, likely pressuring rate-sensitive equities and lifting real-yield expectations.

WARSH SAYS IF THIS WERE DESCRIBED AS A "PAUSE," FINANCIAL MARKETS WOULD TAKE THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT WARSH SAYS WHAT THE FED DID WAS A RIGOROUS REVIEW OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION, ADDING THAT SHOCKS AT THIS JUNCTURE MAKE THE JOB A LITTLE TOUGHER ›

Warsh’s remarks frame the Fed’s recent move as a rigorous review amid current shocks, implying less dovish “pause” interpretation and keeping pressure on rate expectations; modest negative for high-multiple equities via real-yield sensitivity.

WARSH SAYS THE BROADER DISCUSSION SHOWED STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE HARD QUESTIONS, AND THAT HIS OWN JUDGMENT IS THAT THIS IS A PERIOD OF "WATCHFUL THINKING," NOT "WATCHFUL WAITING" ›

Tone from Fed/US policy discussion suggests measured, steady approach rather than a shift toward easing or tightening; limited immediate repricing risk for rates and equities.

WARSH SAYS THE FED WILL CONTINUE WATCHING THAT MARKET INFORMATION, WHICH CAN HELP INFORM ITS DECISION IN 7-8 WEEKS ›

Fed signals continued data-dependence with timing toward late-Sep decisions; may keep rates/real-yield expectations volatile but no clear hawkish shift in this headline.

WARSH SAYS RATES ARE HIGHER TODAY THAN 42 DAYS AGO, AND THAT MARKETS HAVE MADE THEIR JUDGMENTS BUT STILL HAVE A LOT TO DECIDE IN THE INTERVENING PERIOD ›

Warsh comment reinforces higher-for-longer uncertainty, supporting real-yields risk and keeping pressure on rate-sensitive growth/valuation multiples.

S&P 500 TURNS POSITIVE, ERASING AN EARLIER DROP OF AS MUCH AS 1.2% ›

Intraday reversal to positive suggests improving risk appetite; likely supported by easing yield/inflation fears and/or resilient earnings expectations in mega-cap growth.

WARSH SAYS HE CAME AWAY BELIEVING THIS IS THE RIGHT TEAM TO BATTLE HIGH INFLATION ›

Indicates political support for policies targeting high inflation, but provides no concrete policy details; limited near-term effect unless it signals tighter inflation-fighting measures.

WARSH SAYS HE ASKED FOR A GOOD FAMILY FIGHT AND GOT ONE - AN ACTIVE, ROBUST DISCUSSION WITH BROAD AGREEMENT THAT THE FED HAS THE POWER TO DELIVER STABLE PRICES, THOUGH THE DISSENTS DON'T CAPTURE THE FULL ESSENCE OF THE DISCUSSION ›

Fed power to deliver stable prices reiterated; no clear policy shift beyond reaffirmation—read-through suggests rates/yields remain the key near-term driver.

WARSH SAYS ECONOMIC OUTPUT AND THE LABOR MARKET ARE SOLID AND STEADY, AND THE TREASURY MARKET SEEMS TO REFLECT THAT, WHICH IS WHY NOMINAL AND REAL YIELDS ARE MOVING EVEN THOUGH THE FED HAS DONE LITTLE OVER THE PAST 42 DAYS ›

Warsh cites solid, steady economic output and a firm labor market; Treasury yields rise on improved growth expectations (nominal and real) despite limited Fed action. Supports rate sensitivity/financials while keeping valuation risk for duration-heavy growth.

WARSH SAYS THE FED IS TRYING NOT TO INTERFERE WITH THE MARKET SIGNAL, NOTING MARKETS HAVE REACTED MUCH MORE DIRECTLY TO EVENTS OVER THE PAST 42 DAYS, WITH THE FED OBSERVING BUT STAYING OUT OF IT - INTERPRETING MARKETS IS AN IMPERFECT BUSINESS ›

Fed messaging suggests policymakers are observing market pricing rather than actively steering it, implying limited near-term policy support and keeping focus on real yields and rate expectations.

AL ARABY DBN NEWS HOUTHI OFFICIAL DENIES ANY PLANS TO IMPOSE TRANSIT FEES ON SHIPS PASSING THROUGH THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT ›

Denial of plans to impose transit fees via Bab al-Mandab reduces near-term risk to Middle East shipping costs and helps stabilize oil/transport risk premium.

FED CHAIR WARSH SAYS THE FED IS TRYING NOT TO INTERFERE WITH THE MARKET SIGNAL, NOTING MARKETS HAVE REACTED MUCH MORE DIRECTLY TO EVENTS OVER THE PAST 42 DAYS, AND THAT THE FED IS WATCHING BUT STAYING OUT OF IT ›

Fed Chair signals a hands-off approach and implies reliance on market pricing; modestly stabilizing for risk assets but not a clear pivot given restrictive policy stance and real-yield sensitivity.

FED CHAIR WARSH: THE COMMITTEE HELD A VIGOROUS DISCUSSION CENTERED ON FOUR QUESTIONS: FIVE YEARS OF HIGH INFLATION, RECENT ECONOMIC SHOCKS, WHETHER PRICE INCREASES FROM THOSE SHOCKS SIGNAL A BROADER INFLATIONARY DYNAMIC, AND WHICH MONETARY POLICY TOOLS AND STRATEGIES TO USE ›

Fed discussion on how recent shocks affect a still-high-inflation regime keeps policy expectations tight; near-term bias to higher real yields and rate-sensitive volatility (financials/growth).

FED'S WARSH HIGHLIGHTED STRONG INVESTMENT ACTIVITY, SAYING AI INVESTMENT IS LAYING THE FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH. ›

Warsh framing of strong investment and AI-led growth slightly supports risk appetite, but remains tempered by restrictive Fed posture and real-yield sensitivity.

FED'S WARSH SAID THE FOMC WILL NOT HESITATE TO ACT TO RESTORE PRICE STABILITY, WHILE NOTING THE COMMITTEE IS AVOIDING FORECASTS AND REMAINS DATA-DEPENDENT. ›

Fed officials emphasize readiness to act to restore price stability while staying data-dependent, reinforcing restrictive/high-for-longer expectations and keeping real-yield risk elevated; likely a mild headwind for rate-sensitive growth equities.

FED'S WARSH SAID THE U.S. ECONOMY REMAINS RESILIENT, REAFFIRMING THE FED'S COMMITMENT TO ITS 2% INFLATION TARGET AND STRESSING "THERE IS NO SOFT TARGET." ›

Warsh signaling a continued commitment to the 2% inflation target (“no soft target”) suggests policy will stay restrictive if inflation resilience persists, modestly supporting yields/USD and adding slight upside risk to real rates.

FED'S WARSH SAYS THERE IS NO SOFT INFLATION TARGET - ONLY ONE TARGET, AND IT IS 2% - THOUGH FIVE YEARS OF HIGH INFLATION HAVE LEFT A LASTING IMPRESSION THAT THE FED'S IMPLICIT TARGET WAS ABOVE THAT LEVEL ›

Warsh reiterates a single 2% inflation target despite sticky post-higher-inflation effects, reinforcing higher-for-longer risk and keeping real yields/discount rates sensitive; likely pressure on duration/growth while supporting USD and favoring value/quality over stretched valuations.

FED'S WARSH SAYS THE ECONOMY IS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE RESILIENCE ›

Warsh’s comment on “impressive resilience” implies less near-term urgency for easing, supporting rates stability but keeping a lid on rate-cut expectations.

FED CHAIR WARSH SAYS FOMC DISCUSSION WAS COLLEGIAL, WITH THE COMMITTEE REMAINING RESOLUTE ON PRICE STABILITY WHILE STEERING CLEAR OF FORECASTING ›

Neutral-to-slightly bearish tone: reaffirmation of commitment to price stability with no new guidance; supportive of policy restraint but limited incremental signal for yields.

US CRUDE OIL FUTURES SETTLE UP $5.20, OR 6.56%, AT $84.46 PER BARREL ›

US crude surged ~6.6% to $84.46, raising near-term inflation/oil-shock risk and pressuring rate-sensitive equities via higher expected real yields.

THE FED HELD OFF RAISING RATES WHILE ASSESSING THE IRAN WAR'S IMPACT ON INFLATION, VOTING 9-3 TO KEEP THE BENCHMARK RATE AT 3.5%-3.75% FOR A FIFTH STRAIGHT MEETING, WITH LOGAN, HAMMACK AND KASHKARI DISSENTING IN FAVOR OF A QUARTER-POINT HIKE ›

Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a fifth meeting, signaling caution on inflation impact from the Iran conflict; dissenters favored a hike, keeping yield and rate-expectations volatility elevated.

MARKET SNAPSHOT: S&P 500 -0.3%, DOW -1.4%, NASDAQ 100 -0.2%; 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD +3BPS TO 4.63%; DOLLAR INDEX -0.2%; SPOT GOLD +1.2% TO $4,078.40/OZ; BITCOIN +0.8% TO $64,324 ›

Mild risk-off: yields tick higher (4.63%), pressuring equities; USD softer and gold bid signal modest hedging demand. Crypto firmer alongside the move.

THE FED'S DECISION TO HOLD RATES STEADY HAS CLOUDED THE OUTLOOK FOR A SEPTEMBER MOVE AND BEYOND, WITH TRADERS NOW PUSHING EXPECTATIONS FOR A QUARTER-POINT HIKE TOWARD OCTOBER AND LOSING CONFIDENCE IN TWO HIKES BY MARCH NEXT YEAR ›

Fed holds steady; uncertainty over timing of the next move shifts odds toward a later hike (Oct) and reduces confidence in multiple hikes—near-term rates path less predictable, which can keep duration/growth stocks volatile.

G1 NEWS: VESSEL TRAFFIC AT BRAZIL'S SANTOS PORT TEMPORARILY HALTED DUE TO STRONG WINDS ›

Short-term logistics disruption at Santos (Brazil) tied to strong winds; minor near-term implications for regional trade/industrial supply chains, but limited direct macro reach given temporary nature.

TECH AND AI-RELATED STOCKS LED DECLINES, WITH NVIDIA, AMD, MICRON AND KLA CORP ALL FALLING AND SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPI TUMBLING 6% AFTER SK HYNIX SHARES DROPPED DESPITE RECORD QUARTERLY REVENUE ›

Tech/AI selloff pressured by weaker-than-expected sentiment despite strong results at SK Hynix; semiconductor momentum hit via risk-off and valuation sensitivity to yields.

US STOCKS TRIMMED EARLIER LOSSES AFTER THE FED HELD RATES STEADY, WITH THE S&P 500 DOWN 0.3% AND THE DOW DOWN 1.2%, THOUGH THREE FOMC MEMBERS HAD PUSHED FOR A RATE HIKE ›

Fed held rates steady but dissent (some members urging a hike) keeps policy uncertainty elevated; near-term supports reduce downside pressure for US equities but limits upside given higher-for-longer concerns.

BRENT CRUDE JUMPED 7.1% TO $87.87 A BARREL AS FIGHTING RESUMED IN THE IRAN CONFLICT, WITH IRAN LAUNCHING MISSILES AT AMERICAN FORCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST WHILE THE US MILITARY JOINED SAUDI ARABIA IN STRIKING TEHRAN-BACKED MILITIAS IN IRAQ ›

Brent +7.1% on resumed Iran conflict raises oil-shock risk, lifting inflation expectations and pressuring risk assets via higher input costs and potentially higher real yields.

FED SWAPS ARE NO LONGER FULLY PRICING IN A RATE INCREASE AT THE SEPTEMBER MEETING ›

Softening rate-increase odds implies easing Fed hawkishness; supportive for duration-sensitive growth/risk assets as yields may face less upward pressure.

AIRBUS CEO SEES GROWING POTENTIAL DEMAND FOR THE A400M MILITARY AIRCRAFT ›

Positive outlook for defense aviation demand; modest boost to European aerospace order sentiment, limited near-term macro impact versus rates/oil.

AIRBUS CEO SAYS THE COMPANY HAS NO AIRCRAFT SITTING UNDELIVERED DUE TO ENGINE DELAYS, AND THAT NEGOTIATIONS WITH PRATT & WHITNEY OVER ENGINE SUPPLIES ARE ONGOING ›

Reduction in delivery overhang from engine delays at Airbus; however ongoing Pratt & Whitney engine-supply negotiations keep near-term uncertainty in aerospace supply chains.

AIRBUS CFO SAYS THERE WERE "NO REAL MAJOR SURPRISES" IN THE FORMER SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS ASSETS, WITH NO CHANGE TO THE PROJECTED FINANCIAL IMPACT, AND CONFIRMS THE RECENT FLAWED A320-FAMILY FUSELAGE PANEL ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED ›

Airbus guidance remains unchanged after reviewing former Spirit assets; A320 fuse-panel issue resolution reduces delivery/regulatory risk, modestly supportive for aerospace supply-chain sentiment.

SHELL AND PHILLIPS 66 ARE EXPLORING A POTENTIAL SALE OF THEIR STAKES IN THE EXPLORER PIPELINE, WITH ENERGY TRANSFER AND MPLX POSSIBLY JOINING THE EFFORT DEPENDING ON BUYER INTEREST, SOURCES SAY ANY DEAL COULD VALUE THE EXPLORER PIPELINE AT ROUGHLY $3.5 BILLION, SOURCES SAY ›

Potential stake sale in the Explorer pipeline could spur midstream M&A activity; modest bearish tilt for volumes/pricing expectations if it signals restructuring, but valuation talk around ~$3.5B is largely contained to North American energy infrastructure.

FARS NEWS, CITING ARAB SOURCES: ISRAELI FORCES ARE PUSHING TOWARD THE AL-RAQAD VALLEY INSIDE SYRIAN TERRITORY, WHILE REGIME ARTILLERY SHELLS THE WESTERN OUTSKIRTS OF DERAA ›

Escalation in Syria raises Middle East risk, increasing oil/geopolitical risk premia and pressuring risk assets via higher energy costs and potential inflation/yield sensitivity.

SPOT SILVER JUMPS OVER 3% TO $58.88 PER OUNCE ›

Spot silver breaks higher on momentum/renewed demand; modest positive for metals-linked miners, but limited broad-equity implications unless tied to a wider risk-off or real-yield shift.

CANADIAN DOLLAR STRENGTHENS FURTHER AFTER THE FED RATE DECISION, RISING 0.3% ON THE DAY TO 1.4064 PER US DOLLAR ›

CAD strengthens after the Fed rate decision; a stronger CAD can modestly ease Canadian inflation pressures but is mainly a near-term FX signal tied to USD/rate expectations.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE LEFT ITS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50%-3.75%, MAINTAINING A DATA-DEPENDENT APPROACH WHILE REAFFIRMING ITS COMMITMENT TO ACHIEVING PRICE STABILITY. THE FOMC SAID THE U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUES TO EXPAND AT A SOLID PACE, SUPPORTED BY STRONG ›

Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% and reiterated a data-dependent, price-stability stance; supportive growth tone but keeps “higher-for-longer” risk for rate-sensitive stocks, keeping equities range-bound and real yields in focus.

FED HOLDS INTEREST RATE AT 3.75% IN JULY, MATCHING BOTH THE PRIOR RATE AND ECONOMIST ESTIMATES ›

Fed holds at 3.75% (no surprise); sentiment slightly cautious given restrictive, higher-for-longer stance and sensitivity to real yields.

FED HOLDS RATES, HAWKISH SPLIT EMERGES The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, saying inflation remains above its 2% target while the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. The decision passed 9–3, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting ›

Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% but framed inflation as still above target and showed a hawkish split (9–3 with 3 doves dissenting), reinforcing higher-for-longer concerns and pressuring rate-sensitive growth/valuation multiples.

FED HOLDS, THREE OFFICIALS PUSH FOR HIKE The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9–3 vote. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented, preferring a 25-basis-point hike. The policy statement was largely unchanged from June, but the split signals growing internal ›

Fed hold at 3.50%–3.75% but internal push for a hike (3 dissenters) reinforces higher-for-longer / sticky-inflation risk, pressuring rate-sensitive growth and tightening financial conditions.

U.S. (JUL) FED INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL: 3.75% VS 3.75% PREVIOUS; EST 3.75% ›

Fed held rates steady at 3.75% (in line with expectations), keeping restrictive policy in place; modest bearish bias for rate-sensitive equities and FX via persistently higher-for-longer expectations.

🚨 *FED LEAVES RATE UNCHANGED ›

Fed holding rates steady is broadly neutral for markets near-term, though it keeps “higher-for-longer” expectations intact in a sticky-inflation, high-valuation environment.

RT @DeItaone: 🏛️ FED WATCH Kalshi traders see a 77% chance the Fed holds rates today and a 23% chance of a surprise 25bp hike. Citadel Se… ›

Market sentiment slightly bearish as odds tilt toward a surprise 25bp hike, keeping rates uncertainty elevated for high-valuation equities and rate-sensitive sectors.

CANADA IS WORKING TO HAVE A MORE STABLE TRADING RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S., INCLUDING IN CRITICAL SECTORS - PRIME MINISTER CARNEY WE'RE STARTING FROM A STRONG POSITION IN TALKS WITH THE U.S, SAYS CARNEY ›

Potentially reduces cross-border trade uncertainty for Canadian-linked supply chains (industrials/commodities) but is likely incremental given negotiations are still in progress.

ISRAEL'S DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT BELIEVES WASHINGTON IS NEARING A MAJOR COUNTER-RESPONSE TO IRAN AFTER A STRING OF ESCALATIONS - MISSILE STRIKE ON US FORCES IN JORDAN, MILITIA ATTACK IN IRAQ, THREATS TO AZERBAIJAN AND UKRAINE, HORMUZ DISPUTE, AND A STRIKE IN EGYPT - SECURITY SOURCE ›

Middle East escalation risk raises odds of an oil/shipping shock, pressuring risk assets and potentially keeping inflation and real yields elevated; flight-to-safety likely supports USD while energy-linked FX and equities underperform.

BANK OF CANADA JULY 15 MEETING MINUTES: SOME MEMBERS FLAGGED CONCERN OVER MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DRIFTING HIGHER, BUT ALL AGREED LONGER-TERM EXPECTATIONS STAYED FIRMLY ANCHORED ›

BoC minutes suggest mild hawkish risk via medium-term inflation expectation drift, but anchored long-term expectations should limit a major re-pricing of rate cuts.

BANK OF CANADA JULY 15 MEETING MINUTES: MEMBERS SAW LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT HIGHER OIL PRICES WERE SPREADING TO OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES PRICES, AND AGREED TO REITERATE THEY WOULD NOT ALLOW HIGHER OIL PRICES TO CAUSE LASTING INFLATION, THOUGH THE LONGER PRICES STAY ELEVATED, THE ›

BoC minutes suggest central bank confidence that higher oil is not feeding through to core services inflation; reinforces “higher-for-longer” caution but lowers near-term tail risk of an oil-driven inflation spiral.

BANK OF CANADA JULY 15 MEETING MINUTES: DESPITE THIS, MEMBERS AGREED UNCERTAINTY REMAINED HIGH, PARTLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE MIDEAST CONFLICT ›

Bank of Canada minutes highlight persistent uncertainty tied to Middle East conflict risk, mildly negative for rate/FX risk appetite and cross-border growth-sensitive sentiment.

BANK OF CANADA JULY 15 MEETING MINUTES: WITH GROWTH RESUMING AND INFLATION EASING, MEMBERS AGREED THE POLICY TRADE-OFF HAD LESSENED ›

Slightly bullish for rate-sensitive assets: BoC minutes suggest the inflation-growth trade-off has eased (supports gradual normalization/rate cuts vs. higher-for-longer). Likely supportive for Canadian financials and rate/real-estate proxies; modest near-term since it’s minutes, not a decision.

BANK OF CANADA JULY 15 MEETING MINUTES: RISKS TO GROWTH INCLUDE BUSINESSES FAILING TO KEEP ADAPTING TO TARIFFS, WEAKER CONSUMER SPENDING RESILIENCE, AND STALLED HOUSING MARKETS IN MAJOR CITIES ›

BoC July minutes flagged tariff-adjustment strain, softer consumer resilience, and stalled housing—bearish for Canadian cyclicals and CAD via lower growth outlook; supports expectations for a more cautious/less-hawkish path.

BANK OF CANADA JULY 15 MEETING MINUTES: AHEAD OF BANK OF CANADA'S JULY 15 RATE ANNOUNCEMENT, SOME GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBERS DISAGREED ON WHETHER THE REBOUND COULD BE SUSTAINED ›

BoC July rate decision uncertainty (hawk/dove split) increases odds of sticky inflation debate, mildly pressuring CAD-rate-sensitive assets; impacts Canadian financial conditions and regional yields more than broad US risk appetite.

WH SR. ADVISER HASSETT: WE ANTICIPATE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES, SEE NO JUSTIFICATION FOR A US DEBT DOWNGRADE AS THE LONG-TERM FISCAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES, AND EXPECT WARSH TO MAKE THE CORRECT DECISION — CNBC INTERVIEW ›

Signal of slightly softer inflation/price pressures and reduced immediate risk of a US sovereign downgrade; modest relief for rates-sensitive assets, though not enough to overturn higher-for-longer backdrop.

US Energy Secretary Wright: Half that of the oil flowing through pipelines, the SPR is a long way from operational minimum. ›

US SPR remains well above operational minimum, slightly reducing near-term oil-supply shock risk; modestly supportive for energy sentiment but not a major catalyst for crude prices.

Israeli army launched an artillery attack on the area around the town of Abdeen in the Yarmouk basin region, near the province of Daraa - Tasnim News citing Syrian Sources ›

Escalation in Syria/Israeli artillery risk raises Middle East tail-risk, pressuring risk sentiment and potentially lifting oil/energy volatility via supply concerns.

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