DOORDASH SEES Q3 MARKETPLACE GOV OF $33.0 BLN-$34.0 BLN VERSUS $33.47 BLN EXPECTED AND Q3 ADJUSTED EBITDA OF $950 MLN-$1.10 BLN VERSUS $982.2 MLN EXPECTED, AND SAYS IT WILL RAISE LEVELS OF INVESTMENT IN LAND AND AIR-BASED ROBOTS.
DoorDash’s Q3 marketplace GMV and adjusted EBITDA outlook slightly miss expectations, but the guidance includes incremental investment in land- and air-based robotics, modestly supporting the long-term automation narrative.
DOORDASH POSTED Q2 REVENUE OF $4.45 BLN, ABOVE THE $4.34 BLN ESTIMATE, WITH MARKETPLACE GOV OF $33.08 BLN VERSUS $33.05 BLN, ADJUSTED EBITDA OF $914 MLN VERSUS $843.4 MLN AND ORDERS OF 970 MLN VERSUS 967.48 MLN, THOUGH EPS OF 46C MISSED THE 48C ESTIMATE.
Beats on revenue, marketplace GMV, EBITDA, and orders suggest improving unit economics, but the EPS miss tempers sentiment; typically mildly bullish for high-beta consumer/delivery platforms and ad spend signals.
MERCADOLIBRE POSTED Q2 REVENUE OF $10.2 BLN, ABOVE THE $9.78 BLN ESTIMATE, WITH NET INCOME OF $466 MLN VERSUS $447.4 MLN EXPECTED
Q2 results beat on revenue and net income, supporting Latin America ecommerce/payments sentiment; likely a modest positive read-through for consumer/growth risk despite range-bound US tape.
SANDISK SEES Q1 REVENUE OF $10,300-$10,800 MLN VERSUS $10,465 MLN EXPECTED AND Q1 ADJUSTED EPS OF $44-$46 VERSUS $43.1 EXPECTED.
SanDisk (memory/storage) guides to revenue and EPS that slightly beat consensus, supporting sentiment for semiconductor hardware and end-demand expectations; likely modest upside given range-bound US equities and valuation sensitivity.
FED'S COOK SAYS IT MAY YET TURN OUT THAT THE FED DOES NOT NEED TO RAISE RATES, WHILE NOTING THE SOUR CONSUMER MOOD IS TIED TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS INCLUDING HIGH INFLATION.
Cook’s comments lean toward less aggressive tightening (potentially softer yields), but sticky inflation and weak consumer sentiment keep rates risk elevated—supporting defensives over high-multiple cyclicals.
FED'S COOK SAYS THE ECONOMY IS RESILIENT WITH GROWTH AT A 'SOLID PACE' AND THE JOB MARKET HAS BEEN RESILIENT, WITH REASONS TO BELIEVE INFLATION LEVELS CAN COOL AND AI SO FAR NOT HAVING CREATED NOTABLE JOB LOSSES.
Fed messaging stays constructive (resilient growth, cooling inflation trajectory), supportive for rate-sensitive equities; modest tailwind given high valuations and still-restrictive policy stance.
FED'S COOK SAYS THE RISK IS RISING THAT TOO-HIGH INFLATION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE ECONOMY AND THAT INFLATION RISKS OUTWEIGH JOB MARKET RISKS, ADDING THAT SHE IS FIRMLY COMMITTED TO RESTORING PRICE STABILITY.
Fed policymaker flags rising risk of embedded inflation; increases odds of prolonged restrictive rates and a potential real-yield/discount-rate lift. Likely pressure on rate-sensitive growth equities while supporting cash/defensive and pricing-power sectors; FX may strengthen USD.
FED'S COOK SAYS SHE SUPPORTED HOLDING RATES STEADY AT THE RECENT FOMC WHILE WAITING FOR MORE DATA, BUT IS READY TO RAISE RATES IF THE DISINFLATION TREND DOES NOT RETURN, WARNING THE FED IS RUNNING OUT OF ROOM TO WAIT.
Fed policymaker signals higher-for-longer with readiness to hike if disinflation stalls, reinforcing restrictive real-rate pressure; negative for rate-sensitive growth and broad equity risk appetite, but not an immediate shock to liquidity since rates were held.
EXPEDIA RAISED ITS FY REVENUE GUIDANCE TO $16.05 BLN-$16.22 BLN FROM $15.6 BLN-$16.0 BLN, WITH FY GROSS BOOKINGS SEEN AT $129.5 BLN-$130.8 BLN VERSUS $129.23 BLN EXPECTED.
Positive earnings guidance revision supports travel/online booking demand expectations; modest upside for consumer discretionary and OTA peers, likely favorable for sentiment but not a broad macro catalyst.
EXPEDIA SEES Q3 REVENUE OF $4.65 BLN-$4.75 BLN VERSUS $4.66 BLN EXPECTED AND Q3 GROSS BOOKINGS OF $32.2 BLN-$32.8 BLN VERSUS $32.29 BLN EXPECTED.
Expedia’s Q3 revenue and gross bookings are largely in-line with expectations, signaling steady demand and limiting upside/downside versus a market that is sensitive to earnings/forward guidance.
EXPEDIA POSTED Q2 REVENUE OF $4.32 BLN, ABOVE THE $4.17 BLN ESTIMATE, WITH ADJUSTED EPS OF $5.76 VERSUS $5.15 EXPECTED, ADJUSTED EBITDA OF $1.12 BLN VERSUS $1.04 BLN, GROSS BOOKINGS OF $33.93 BLN VERSUS $33.0 BLN AND FREE CASH FLOW OF $1.28 BLN VERSUS $733.2 MLN.
Beat on revenue, EPS, bookings and a sharp jump in free cash flow signals improving demand/monetization in travel, supporting consumer-discretionary and travel-leisure sentiment; should modestly lift broader market risk appetite given range-bound conditions.
RT @RedboxWire: NASDAQ COMPOSITE UNOFFICIALLY ENDS SESSION LOWER BY 182.01 POINTS, OR 0.69 PERCENT, FINISHING AT 26,402.99
S&P 500 INDEX U…
NASDAQ finished lower (~-0.69%), signaling mild risk-off with no clear catalyst beyond broad, range-bound weakness in high-beta growth.
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION PLANS TO IMPOSE TARIFF OF 15% ON POLYSILICON DERIVATIVES -SOURCES
15% tariff on polysilicon derivatives raises input-cost risk for solar supply chains, pressuring clean-energy margins and potentially reigniting inflation concerns for rate-sensitive markets.
HORMUZ DEAL COULD GIVE IRAN MORE CONTROL
A proposed Oman-mediated deal would give Iran greater control over ships entering the Strait of Hormuz, marking a major concession if approved, Reuters reported.
While Iranian officials say talks have made significant progress, regional
More Iranian control of Strait of Hormuz raises Middle East shipping and oil-supply risk, pressuring energy prices and lifting risk premia—likely bearish for oil-sensitive equities and potentially USD strength via safe-haven flows.
THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF EGYPT, TURKEY, PAKISTAN AND SAUDI ARABIA HAVE MET IN AMMAN, JORDAN, TO DISCUSS WAYS TO DE-ESCALATE REGIONAL TENSIONS, PARTICULARLY CONCERNING THE SECURITY OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ - IRIB NEWS
Talks among regional foreign ministers in Amman to de-escalate tensions and address security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz; slightly offsets Middle East oil-risk premium but does not eliminate geopolitical volatility.
A FLIGHT OF ISRAELI SPY HELICOPTERS AND AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PROVINCES OF DARAA AND QUNEITRA - TASNIM CITING LOCAL SYRIAN SOURCES
Reports of Israeli spy aircraft operating over southern Syria raise Middle East/geopolitical risk, modestly pressuring risk sentiment and energy risk premia (Brent).
TOP U.S. OFFICIALS WARN THAT AI RISKS REQUIRE TOUGHER CYBER DEFENSES - CYBERSECURITY PANEL AT LAS VEGAS EVENT
Cybersecurity-focused headline; modest negative tilt for high-visibility AI/tech names due to potential compliance/cost and risk premium, but limited near-term macro effect versus rates/oil.
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS READYING TARIFFS AND PRICE FLOORS TO BOOST U.S. POLYSILICON, WITH U.S. OFFICIALS HAVING DISCUSSED AT LEAST A 15% POLYSILICON TARIFF AND A PLAN THAT WOULD INCLUDE OFFSETS FOR DOMESTIC MANUFACTURERS
Potential tariff/price-floor support for U.S. polysilicon could lift domestic solar input costs in the short term, pressure downstream installers/clean-energy supply chains, and add to inflation/tariff overhang risk—neutral-to-bearish for broader market sentiment.
IRAN'S PRESIDENT SAYS INTERACTION WITH COUNTRY'S SUPREME LEADER IS 'VERY DIFFICULT' CURRENTLY
Iran leadership tensions raise Middle East escalation risk, which can keep crude bid and pressure risk assets via higher energy/transport costs and inflation expectations.
IRAN'S PRESIDENT SAYS THAT COMMUNICATION WITH THE COUNTRY'S SUPREME LEADER IS CURRENTLY 'VERY DIFFICULT' - STATE TV
Iran leadership communication difficulty raises Middle East political risk, increasing uncertainty for oil supply channels and risk premium; energy and inflation expectations may wobble.
GENERAL DYNAMICS' BOARD HAS DECLARED A QUARTERLY DIVIDEND OF $1.59 PER SHARE, PAYABLE NOV. 13, 2026
Dividend declaration by General Dynamics (defensive cash flow, mild support for shareholder returns). Likely limited immediate impact versus broader drivers like real yields and oil risk.
BRENT CRUDE FUTURES SETTLE AT $79.45/BBL, UP 9 CENTS, OR 0.11%
Brent settles slightly higher (+0.11%), implying minimal near-term pressure on inflation/energy input costs and risk assets; likely neutral for yields and USD.
TOGETHER, THE SATELLITES PROVIDE GLOBAL COVERAGE EVERY FIVE DAYS AND WILL SUPPORT ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING, AGRICULTURE AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT, INCLUDING CROP MONITORING PROJECTS IN INDONESIA AND UZBEKISTAN - XINHUA
Limited direct macro/financial signal; headline is largely neutral/strategic for satellite-enabled monitoring use-cases (agri/environment/disaster management) without clear near-term earnings or rate/oil effects.
CHINA HAS SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED TWO ORIENTAL SMART EYE (OSE) HYPERSPECTRAL SATELLITES ABOARD A SMART DRAGON-3 ROCKET FROM A SEA-BASED PLATFORM NEAR HAIYANG, SHANDONG, ON AUGUST 5, 2026, WITH THE SATELLITES EQUIPPED WITH ADVANCED HYPERSPECTRAL IMAGING AND ONBOARD AI PROCESSORS
China space/AI remote-sensing progress points to incremental strength in defense/ISR and geospatial AI demand; limited immediate macro spillover but mildly supportive for related tech supply chains.
SAUDI ARABIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER PRINCE FAISAL BIN FARHAN AL SAUD SAYS JERUSALEM — A CITY CHERISHED BY MILLIONS OF MUSLIMS, CHRISTIANS AND JEWS — MUST BE A CITY OF PEACE AND COEXISTENCE, NOT AN ARENA OF CONFLICT OR THE IMPOSITION OF A FAIT ACCOMPLI - SOURCES
Geopolitical rhetoric from Saudi Arabia on Jerusalem may slightly affect Middle East risk appetite, with marginal pressure on energy risk premia and broader risk sentiment.
APOLLO HAS TAPPED PARTNER REED RAYMAN TO LEAD ITS CHIP-FOCUSED COVERAGE, PART OF A BROADER STRATEGY TO SOURCE MORE DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEALS AND CONNECT THEM WITH INVESTMENT TEAMS ACROSS THE FIRM, WITH RAYMAN'S ROLE FOCUSED ON DEVELOPING RELATIONSHIPS TO HELP APOLLO LEAD MORE
Apollo expanding partner coverage for chip/digital-infrastructure deals is modestly supportive for financials tied to data-center/AI investment themes, but likely limited near-term market impact versus macro drivers (real yields/oil).
CANADA PM CARNEY SAYS HIS GOVERNMENT WILL COMMIT C$2.7 BLN OVER THREE YEARS TOWARD BUILDING RENTAL HOUSING PROJECTS IN TORONTO
Targeted Canadian fiscal spending to expand rental housing in Toronto; modest positive for Canadian homebuilders/real-estate construction activity, limited direct spillover to US equities given already range-bound conditions and focus on real yields/oil.
YEMEN'S HOUTHIS SPOKESPERSON SAYS THE YEMENI ARMED FORCES WERE ABLE TO TARGET THE SAUDI OIL TANKER 'DAISY' IN THE GULF OF ADEN USING A BALLISTIC MISSILE, ADDING THAT FORCES ARE METICULOUSLY MONITORING ALL MOVEMENTS OF SAUDI OIL TANKERS AND WILL NOT ALLOW ANY SHIP TO PASS - POST
Escalating Red Sea/Gulf of Aden attacks raise near-term oil-shipping risk and elevate Brent/geopolitical risk premia, likely tightening financial conditions via higher energy inflation expectations.
U.S. CRUDE OIL FUTURES SETTLE AT $75.22/BBL, DOWN 55 CENTS, OR 0.73%
Small crude pullback (about -0.7%) slightly eases near-term inflation/oil-risk pricing; likely modest support for broad risk sentiment while keeping energy volatility in view.
OPENAI DRIVES MOST OF MICROSOFT'S AI REVENUE
Microsoft disclosed it generated $24.1 billion in AI revenue from OpenAI in the year ended June, suggesting the ChatGPT maker accounts for more than half—and possibly around 70%—of its AI business.
The figures highlight Microsoft's
Concentrated AI revenue tie-in with OpenAI supports Microsoft’s AI margins/visibility, modestly bullish for megacap software/AI infrastructure demand; limited broader market impact given range-bound equities.
YEMEN'S HOUTHIS SAY THEY TARGETED SAUDI OIL VESSEL IN GULF OF ADEN; NO SAUDI CONFIRMATION
Reported Houthi strike on a Saudi-linked oil vessel raises Gulf-of-Aden disruption risk, supporting crude prices and inflation expectations; likely pressures energy-risk assets and keeps yields/FX cautious amid Middle East supply fears.
MICROSOFT DISCLOSURES SUGGEST OPENAI ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT 70% OF ITS AI SALES, WITH OPENAI REVENUE REACHING $24.1 BLN IN FISCAL 2026
Stronger-than-expected monetization visibility for OpenAI via Microsoft, supporting AI software/cloud demand and margin expectations; likely boosts AI infrastructure/software sentiment.
IRAN, WHICH HOLDS THE WORLD'S SECOND-LARGEST GAS RESERVES BUT RUNS A STRUCTURAL DEFICIT OF 200-300 MCM A DAY AT PEAK DEMAND, WANTS THE GAS TO PLUG ITS NORTHERN SHORTFALL AND POTENTIALLY GROW ITS OWN EXPORTS TO IRAQ, TURKEY, ARMENIA, PAKISTAN AND OMAN, DEEPENING MOSCOW-TEHRAN
Iran signaling expanded gas exports and deeper Moscow ties raises geopolitical/energy-supply risk; potential upside for gas supply is overshadowed by uncertainty for regional pricing and sanctions dynamics. Likely pressure on European utility/gas-sensitive and energy risk premia; macro effect depends on any actual flow changes and enforcement of restrictions.
THE DEALS HAVE HARDENED FROM A $40 BLN NIOC-GAZPROM MOU IN JULY 2022 INTO A JUNE 2024 GAZPROM-NIGC AGREEMENT, WITH TEHRAN TARGETING IMPORTS OF UP TO 20 BCM A YEAR AND RUSSIA'S ENERGY MINISTER CONFIRMING AN INITIAL SUPPLY OF ABOUT 2 BCM A YEAR POTENTIALLY EXPANDING TO 55 BCM,
Rising Iran–Russia gas deal targets (2 bcm initial, potential scale-up) heighten geopolitical/energy-supply uncertainty and could pressure European gas pricing, but the near-term magnitude may be limited versus broader demand/contracting dynamics.
RUSSIA AND IRAN ARE MOVING CLOSER TO IMPLEMENTING A LONG-NEGOTIATED NATURAL GAS AGREEMENT, WITH OFFICIALS FROM BOTH COUNTRIES CONFIRMING AZERBAIJAN HAS BEEN SELECTED AS THE PREFERRED TRANSIT ROUTE FOR RUSSIAN GAS EXPORTS TO IRAN — A CORRIDOR THAT RECALLS IRAN'S OWN GAS EXPORTS TO
Potential escalation in energy flows and geopolitics via a Russia–Iran gas corridor through Azerbaijan could raise Middle East/energy risk premia; near-term risk is oil/gas volatility and renewed inflation concern via higher energy prices.
IRAN: THERE'S NO DECISION YET ON THE SECOND STAGE OF US TALKS
Iran-US talks uncertainty raises Middle East oil-risk premium, pressuring energy and potentially lifting inflation expectations—bad for rate-sensitive equities if crude rallies.
U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND SAYS THAT AS OF AUG. 5, CENTCOM FORCES HAVE REDIRECTED 48 COMMERCIAL VESSELS, DISABLED 2 AND BOARDED 2, AS THE U.S. CONTINUES ENFORCEMENT OF THE BLOCKADE AGAINST IRAN, WITH A U.S. AIR FORCE F-16 FIGHTER JET REFUELED DURING A PATROL OVER REGIONAL WATERS IN THE
Escalation of enforcement against Iran raises Middle East shipping and oil-shock risk, likely pushing energy risk premia higher and pressuring broader cyclicals while adding inflation/yield-spike concerns.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister: No talks with the US have been held in recent days.
Iran–US no recent talks headline raises Middle East geopolitical risk, supportive of oil price risk premium and potentially higher inflation/real-yield sensitivity.
IRAN'S DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS NO TALKS WITH U.S. HAVE BEEN HELD IN RECENT DAYS
Iran-U.S. diplomacy appears stalled, raising Middle East risk and the likelihood of oil-price volatility and risk-premium pressure on equities.
Iran: The US said in messages that it's ready to return to its pledges.
US signals potential easing of Iran nuclear/energy risk, likely reducing geopolitical risk premium and tempering oil volatility; modest supportive effect for risk assets, but still watch for headline reversals.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran received messages from the US - IRNA
Iran–US de-escalation signals may ease immediate Middle East oil-risk premium, but details are unclear; limited near-term effect on rates and equities unless oil/geopolitical headlines firm up.
IRAN'S DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS U.S. RETURNING TO ITS COMMITMENTS IN ISLAMABAD MOU IS A CONDITION, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR THE REOPENING OF HORMUZ - IRNA
Iran-US talks tied to easing regional tension around Hormuz; risk premium for Middle East oil remains, keeping energy and inflation expectations sensitive.
IRAN'S DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS U.S. RETURNING TO ITS COMMITMENTS IN ISLAMABAD MOU IS A CONDITION, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR THE REOPENING OF HORMUZ - IRNA
Iran signals partial diplomacy progress but indicates reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not imminent, keeping Middle East shipping/oil-supply risk elevated. This is likely bearish for risk assets via higher expected oil volatility and any knock-on inflation/yield pressure.
IRAN: NEW OMAN DEAL TO CLOSE TEMPORARY HORMUZ SHIPPING ROUTES
Improves short-term flow risk for shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate energy/geopolitical tail risk, but remains geopolitically sensitive.
NATO'S RUTTE STATES HE IS TALKING WITH ALLIES ABOUT HOW TO PROVIDE URGENT AIR DEFENSES TO UKRAINE FOLLOWING A CONVERSATION WITH PRESIDENT ZELENSKIY.
Talks on urgent NATO air-defense for Ukraine raise geopolitical risk and can support defense-related demand, but near-term macro market impact is limited versus oil/yields.
IRAN'S DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER STATES THAT A POSSIBLE TRANSIT ROUTE DISCUSSED BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN MAY BE OPERATIONAL FOR 2 TO 4 MONTHS.
Iran–Oman transit route being operational for 2–4 months may marginally reduce near-term oil-shipping/geopolitical risk, but any clarity is temporary and leaves underlying Middle East supply-risk premium elevated.
IRAN'S DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS POTENTIAL TRANSIT ROUTE NEGOTIATED BY IRAN AND OMAN COULD BE VIABLE FOR 2 TO 4 MONTHS - IRNA
Iran–Oman transit route viability for 2–4 months suggests partial relief from Middle East shipping risk, but remains temporary—near-term oil-risk premium likely eases only modestly.
YEMEN: ROUTES THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY CONSIDERED SAFE ARE NO LONGER SAFE, BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE GROUND BY THE YEMENI ARMED FORCES.
Shipping/Red Sea risk rises as Yemen routes previously deemed safe are now considered unsafe, increasing risk premia and potential oil/logistics inflation pressure.
YEMEN: TARGETING A SAUDI SHIP SOLIDIFIES THE EQUATION OF "SIEGE IN EXCHANGE FOR SIEGE."
Escalating Yemen–Saudi maritime tensions raise Middle East shipping and energy-supply risk, pressuring oil/energy risk premia and potentially lifting inflation expectations. Likely bearish for rate-sensitive and discretionary equities via higher real-yield/inflation fear; modest near-term FX pressure toward USD/JPY as a risk-off hedge.
LEADER OF THE YEMENI REVOLUTION ORDERS GENERAL MOBILIZATION. SANA'A PREPARES FOR A FULL-SCALE CONFRONTATION WITH SAUDI ARABIA - TASNIM
Yemen–Saudi escalation raises Middle East risk premium, likely pushing oil higher and pressuring energy, inflation expectations, and risk assets.
IRAN'S DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER GHARIBABADI: THE IRAN-OMAN AGREEMENT DOES NOT SPECIFY HOW THE ROUTES SHOULD BE, BUT RATHER THAT IT SHOULD BE DONE ACCORDING TO IRANIAN ARRANGEMENTS - IRNA
Iran–Oman transit/route remarks keep Middle East logistics and sanctions-enforcement ambiguity in focus, adding mild downside risk to oil and risk sentiment.
UKRAINE’S ZELENSKIY: HAD PHONE CALL WITH NATO CHIEF REGARDING BALLISTIC ISSUE
NATO/Ukraine ballistic issue headline adds geopolitical tail risk; near-term risk premium modestly up as investors watch for any escalation affecting European security and energy expectations.
AN INFORMED SOURCE EMPHASIZED THAT IF THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN IS FINALIZED, THE REOPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL REQUIRE SEPARATE ARRANGEMENTS THAT ALSO INCLUDE THE FULFILLMENT OF US COMMITMENTS - FARS
Geopolitical risk tied to potential disruption/normalization of Strait of Hormuz logistics; raises uncertainty around crude flows and can pressure energy prices and inflation expectations, feeding into yields and broader risk appetite.
U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT REPORTS RUBIO AND UK'S MILIBAND TALKED ABOUT EUROPE INCREASING ITS RESPONSIBILITY FOR ITS SECURITY.
European security burden-sharing/tougher posture could modestly raise geopolitical risk premia, but likely incremental for near-term inflation and yields.
IRAQI SECURITY DELEGATION TO VISIT SAUDI ARABIA - INA
Limited macro read-through; modest oil-risk offset if talks ease Middle East tensions, but headline alone is unlikely to move rates or equities materially.
*ALPHABET SHARES EXTEND DECLINE TO MORE THAN 5%
Alphabet weakness signals downside risk to mega-cap growth sentiment and ad/search demand expectations; likely read-through to broader AI/tech multiples in a range-bound tape.
ALPHABET'S STOCK DROPS OVER 5%.
Google/Alphabet selloff likely tied to earnings/ads demand, ad pricing, or regulatory overhang; modest drag on large-cap tech sentiment but limited macro spillover.
A SENIOR OFFICIAL IN THE US STATE DEPARTMENT: THE ROUND OF TALKS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND LEBANON IN ROME CONCLUDED TODAY AT 15:30 (ROME TIME). THE TALKS ENDED EARLIER THAN PLANNED DUE TO THE SECURITY EVENTS ON THE GROUND, BUT WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING. THE DISCUSSIONS ADDRESSED A
Israel–Lebanon talks ending early on-the-ground security concerns; near-term geopolitical risk can pressure energy via a risk premium but outcome appears contained with plans to resume soon.
Google DeepMind Leadership Changes as Hassabis Takes Chair Role
Demis Hassabis, head of Google DeepMind, is moving to a chairman role at Alphabet’s AI lab, while Koray Kavukcuoglu, Google’s Chief AI Architect and longtime Hassabis deputy, will take over most of his
Leadership transition at Alphabet’s AI unit; likely mildly supportive for AI/productivity expectations but not a direct near-term macro driver.
UKMTO REPORTS ALL CREW MEMBERS ARE SAFE, NO ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE REPORTED.
UKMTO says all crew safe and no environmental damage after an incident, reducing immediate oil/shipping risk versus earlier fears; slight dampening of geopolitical volatility only.
UKMTO REPORTS TANKER CAPTAIN HEARD LOUD EXPLOSION NEAR VESSEL.
Geopolitical incident risk near shipping routes increases crude/oil-shipping premium and can lift inflation expectations, pressuring risk assets and rate-sensitive equities.
UKMTO REPORTED AN INCIDENT OCCURRED 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN.
Shipping incident near Aden/Red Sea raises Middle East risk and potential oil-premium for Brent; likely modest near-term pressure on risk assets via energy/input-cost channels.
WASHINGTON DELAYS APPROVAL OF FRANCE'S CHOICE FOR US AMBASSADOR DUE TO HUMAN RIGHTS CONFLICT.
Potential diplomatic/friction risk; limited direct macro impact but could modestly weigh on sentiment toward European relations and related EU/defense links.
GOOGLE AI HEAD JEFF DEAN IS LEAVING TO START HIS OWN COMPANY.
Leadership change at Google AI leadership is a mild uncertainty for AI capex/roadmap execution; likely limited near-term earnings impact but can affect AI sentiment around Big Tech.
GOOGLE'S CHIEF SCIENTIST LEAVING TO START OWN AI COMPANY - WSJ
Talent shift at a major AI player; near-term sentiment mixed for AI/tech ecosystem but unlikely to materially change Fed/yield-driven range-bound equities immediately.
MAJOR HEDGE FUNDS TARGETED IN WAVE OF ATTEMPTED CYBERATTACKS
Major hedge funds including Citadel, Point72 and Two Sigma were targeted in a wave of sophisticated cyberattacks using AI-powered voice phishing (vishing) to trick employees into granting system access.
Two Sigma said
Cyberattack/impersonation incident raises operational and compliance risk for major hedge funds; could briefly pressure sentiment in financials and amplify demand for cybersecurity spend, but likely not a broad macro driver.
BOFA: S&P 500 HITS 2026 TARGET
Bank of America said the S&P 500 has reached its 2026 target of 7,741, but technical indicators suggest the rally could extend toward 8,000, 8,234 and potentially 8,541.
The bank sees 7,500 as key support but warns that weak August-October
Bullish technical momentum with upside targets on the S&P 500, but near-term seasonal risk (weak Aug–Oct) flags potential volatility and downside drawdowns from lofty valuations.
Banco BPM Q226 Earnings:
- Revenue: EUR1.67B (est EUR1.6B)
- Net Income: EUR580.6M (est EUR533.2M)
- Net Interest Income: EUR85.7M (est EUR771.7M)
Banco BPM beats on revenue and net income, but a large miss in net interest income points to margin pressure for Italian banks; likely mildly bearish for financials and reduces optimism on higher-for-longer dynamics.
COLLEGE COSTS SOAR AS GRADUATES STRUGGLE TO FIND JOBS
Rising tuition and student debt are colliding with a weak entry-level job market, leaving many new graduates unemployed or underemployed despite earning degrees. Investopedia notes that choosing majors aligned with
Weaker early-career hiring and higher education costs point to softer consumer spending/income growth at the margin, but it’s largely incremental rather than an immediate macro shock.
FRANCE'S CAC 40 DOWN 0.01%; SPAIN'S IBEX UP 0.17%
Minor index moves in Europe with no clear macro or sector catalyst; largely noise versus the bigger drivers (real yields and oil).
BRITAIN'S FTSE 100 UP 0.14%; GERMANY'S DAX DOWN 0.24%
Mild divergence in European benchmarks suggests neutral/low-conviction trading; limited immediate sector-specific signal.
YELLEN: INFLATION REMAINS THE KEY CHALLENGE
Former Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the US labor market is functioning well and no longer appears hot enough to fuel inflation.
She added she is surprised the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices have had
Yellen’s view points to less inflation pressure from labor, supporting bonds and risk assets, but the mention of higher oil/Middle East keeps energy-driven inflation risk in focus.
KASHKARI CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE RATE HIKES
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed should begin raising interest rates now to bring inflation under control.
Kashkari, one of three officials who dissented from last week's decision to hold rates steady, backed a 25bp
Dovish-to-hawkish shift adds upside risk to real yields and supports a higher-for-longer pricing backdrop; pressure likely concentrated in rate-sensitive growth and high-valuation equities.
IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON: EXCHANGING VIEWS WITH PAKISTAN AND QATAR
Iran–Pakistan/Qatar talks suggest limited de-escalation risk, modestly easing Middle East energy tail risk but not eliminating geopolitical/oil volatility.
IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON: NO PLANS FOR FOREIGN MINISTER OR PARLIAMENT SPEAKER TO TRAVEL TO PAKISTAN OR QATAR
Reuters/Bloomberg-style headline reduces near-term prospects for regional de-escalation talks; keeps Middle East geopolitical risk premium in energy markets elevated.
BRAZIL'S LULA: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S MOVE ON BRAZILIAN AMBASSADOR VISA 'IRRESPONSIBLE'
Diplomatic/visa action raises Brazil-related political risk and adds mild uncertainty for regional risk sentiment; limited direct impact on US rates or global oil unless it escalates.
IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON: IRAN-OMAN AGREEMENT "IN ITSELF" DOES NOT MEAN THE STRAIT IS SECURE
Iran’s warning that an Iran–Oman deal does not secure the Strait raises Middle East shipping/oil-supply risk, likely pressuring energy prices and near-term inflation expectations; this can lift risk premiums and keep rates higher-for-longer.
IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON SAYS IRAN-OMAN AGREEMENT "IN ITSELF" DOES NOT MEAN THE STRAIT IS SECURE
Iran/Oman comments raise Middle East strait-security uncertainty, increasing oil-shipping and energy-risk premia; likely pressure on risk assets via higher expected crude and inflation/outlook sensitivity to real yields.
IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON: JOINT ANNOUNCEMENT BY OMAN AND IRAN IN FINAL STAGE IF 'CERTAIN THIRD PARTIES' DO NOT INTERFERE
Iran-Oman talks headline raises Middle East risk and potential oil-supply/insecurity premium, keeping energy volatility elevated and pressuring risk assets slightly.
IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON SAYS JOINT ANNOUNCEMENT BY OMAN AND IRAN IN FINAL STAGE IF 'CERTAIN THIRD PARTIES' DO NOT INTERFERE
Iran/Oman talks in sensitive final stage; risk of Middle East supply disruption keeps oil/geopolitics bid, pressuring rate-sensitive equities and inflation expectations.
IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON: GEOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ROUTE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AGREED BY IRAN AND OMAN
Iran–Oman Straits of Hormuz routing agreement marginally reduces near-term shipping/oil-shock risk, but does not remove broader Middle East/geopolitical tail risk; sentiment slightly bearish-to-neutral for energy after headline-driven volatility.
IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON SAYS GEOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ROUTE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AGREED BY IRAN AND OMAN
Improves near-term routing/operational clarity for Strait of Hormuz, which can temper oil-shipping and energy-price risk; still, geopolitical risk remains a key volatility driver for Brent.
ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA WANTS TO STEP UP BALLISTIC MISSILE PRODUCTION AHEAD OF WINTER
Escalating Russia ballistic-missile output ahead of winter raises geopolitical risk, typically pressuring risk assets and lifting energy/security hedging demand via higher conflict-related oil/tail-risk premia.
KASHKARI STATES HE IS NOT ADVOCATING FOR A SIGNIFICANT RATE HIKE.
Kashkari comment reduces near-term risk of a large Fed hike, supporting rates-sensitive equities and easing pressure on real yields; however policy remains restrictive, so market impact is modest.
KASHKARI STATES THAT THE FED WILL RECEIVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DATA PRIOR TO THE SEPTEMBER MEETING.
Kashkari signals the Fed will review more data before September, keeping the “data-dependent / restrictive but flexible” stance in focus; near-term effect is modest and mainly affects rate expectations and front-end yields.
KASHKARI SAYS HIS AIM IS NOT TO SLOW DOWN THE ECONOMY BUT TO ACHIEVE A 2% INFLATION RATE.
Kashkari reiterating the Fed’s inflation goal suggests a continued commitment to easing only when sustained 2% inflation is credible; for markets this is mildly supportive of “higher-for-longer” pricing, keeping real-yield risk and range-bound equity sentiment.
KASHKARI SAID WARSH ADVISED HIM TO ACT ACCORDING TO HIS JUDGMENT FOR THE ECONOMY.
Fed messaging stays cautious/fragmented; reinforces higher-for-longer expectations, mildly supportive for rate-sensitive “quality” but not a growth catalyst.
FED'S KASHKARI SAYS IT'S TIME TO GRADUALLY RAISE INTEREST RATES.
Kashkari signaling a move toward higher rates reinforces higher-for-longer fears, pressuring rate-sensitive growth equities and tightening financial conditions via higher real yields.
RUSSIA HIT THREE CARGO VESSELS IN BLACK SEA REGION - RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY
Black Sea shipping disruption risk raises Middle East/Black Sea geopolitics premium and can lift energy prices (Brent) and risk-off sentiment; may also pressure European risk assets.
NASDAQ 100 TURNS NEGATIVE || S&P 500 PARES GAIN TO 0.4%
NASDAQ 100 flipping negative suggests near-term risk-off momentum, while the S&P 500 holding modest gains points to defensive/less volatile positioning and weaker tech breadth.
BOFA CEO BACKS THREE FED RATE HIKES
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan reiterated the bank's forecast for three Fed rate hikes in September, October and December, saying the labor market remains strong while inflation still needs to ease.
He also noted that spending patterns
Fed-hike reaffirmation keeps real-yield risk elevated, pressuring rate-sensitive equities (growth/tech) and supporting USD; banking sentiment mixed as tighter financial conditions may slow loan demand.
Gold Surges as Hormuz Deal Hopes Boost Rate Cut Expectations
Gold rose for a third consecutive day, gaining more than 3% to around $4,230 an ounce, as markets tracked progress toward a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of easing inflation risks and
Gold strength (+rate-cut expectations) and Middle East/Hormuz risk sentiment; supports precious metals while easing rate-sensitive discounting. Potentially offsets risk appetite near-term via geopolitics-linked headlines.
CHINESE OPTICAL MODULE STOCKS FACE SELLOFF ON RUMORED U.S. IMPORT RESTRICTIONS; AI SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS IN FOCUS
Rumored U.S. import restrictions on Chinese optical module suppliers are pressuring AI supply-chain exposed names, with risk of margin compression and delivery delays; could spill into broader semis/AI hardware sentiment.
US Crude Inventories Rise Unexpectedly as Fuel Stocks Decline
US crude oil inventories increased by 2.479 million barrels in the week ending July 31, compared with expectations for a 1.5 million barrel decline, signaling weaker-than-expected inventory drawdown.
Cushing crude
Larger-than-expected crude build with falling fuel stocks points to softer demand/turnover and raises near-term downside risk for oil prices; energy sentiment likely modestly bearish while inflation expectations could ease slightly if sustained.
US CUSHING CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL: 2356K VS -771K PREVIOUS
US crude inventories surprised higher (less draw than expected), easing near-term oil-tightness concerns; energy prices may cool slightly, but risk remains for volatility given geopolitical sensitivity.
US CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL: 2479K VS -7167K PREVIOUS; EST -1389.17K
US crude inventories came in far higher than expected (and less negative than prior), pointing to a bearish near-term oil-demand/supply balance; this can weigh on energy-linked equities and keep inflation expectations contained, but supports risk sentiment less than a tighter-than-expected print.
$NVDA - NVIDIA SHARES HIT HIGHEST IN OVER TWO MONTHS, LAST UP 4.3%
NVIDIA strength suggests renewed investor appetite for AI/growth names; broadly supportive for US tech despite range-bound conditions.
BOLSONARO CHOOSES CONGRESSMAN AS RUNNING MATE IN BRAZIL VOTE
Brazil election ticket choice adds modest political uncertainty; limited direct spillover unless it affects fiscal credibility, Brazil assets, or BRL-linked flows.
$SPCX - SPACEX FACES $101B SHARE UNLOCK
SpaceX investors are bracing for volatility as $101 billion worth of shares become eligible for trading on Thursday, more than doubling the stock's public float.
The unprecedented nine-stage lockup expiry comes after a sharp https://t.co/bZqQMxB7gi
SpaceX Faces Massive $100B Share Unlock
Over $100 billion in SpaceX ($SPCX) shares unlock tomorrow.
Newly unlocked shares will become available for trading.
The event could significantly increase the stock's tradable float.
Investors are watching for potential market
Potential near-term pressure on SpaceX shares from increased tradable float after a large unlock; broader market effect likely limited unless liquidity/valuation concerns spill into the broader aerospace/space&defense complex.